Verifiable Performance
Signal Hit-Rate Tracker
Every Friday's momentum Top-10 is a published, replayable call. This page treats each week's list as an equal-weight portfolio and measures +1/+4/+12-week forward returns (signal close → horizon close) against SPY. Pending horizons are labeled with their maturity date — no guessing, no hiding.
1.33%+1w avg · 59 wks
5.24%+4w avg · 56 wks
15.3%+12w avg · 48 wks
69%+12w win rate
+11.2%+12w vs SPY
Per-week signal → matured returns (equal-weight) parentheses = SPY same window; ⏳ = pending
Method · Honest Caveats
- Return = signal-date close → horizon close (first trading day ≥ target), equal-weighted Top-10; excludes dividends and transaction costs.
- Signals were published using only point-in-time data; every week's list can be replayed verbatim at /signal?w=<date>.
- ⏳ pending horizons fill in automatically at maturity; Hit = share of the week's Top-10 with positive matured +12w return.
- These are signal-level statistics, not any fund's live NAV — funds carry hedges, costs and rebalancing; see each fund's performance page. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Data as of 2026-10-24 · refreshed by the daily sync · Current signal · NAV verification